Technical

The Price Picture

DOM trades at 191p — 0.5% below its 200-day average (192p) after a 14-month downtrend that put the stock 49% below its 2021 peak. The near-term picture is the interesting one. Since mid-November 2025 the shares have built a base around 170-175p, the RSI has climbed from 24 (deep oversold) to 64, the MACD histogram flipped positive two weeks ago, and the January-2025 death cross is now close to resolving. This is a textbook mean-reversion setup. The 20-March 2026 print — 16x average volume with the stock closing flat, not down — is a capitulation signature, not a liquidation. What the price action is telling us that the fundamentals are not: the market may have stopped selling DOM before the numbers confirm stabilisation.

1. Price snapshot

2. The critical chart — 10 years of price with 50 and 200-day SMAs

Price at 191p is below the 200-day (192p) by 0.5% — technically still in the sub-200 regime that has persisted for 15 months, although effectively on the line. The bigger picture is a downtrend from the 411p peak in August 2021, with lower highs at 386p (Jul 2023) and 340p (Nov 2024). The chart regime: downtrend, testing resolution.

3. Relative strength vs UK market (EWU)

DOM is at 67.6 versus EWU at 148.7 — roughly 81 percentage points of underperformance since May 2023. The gap widened sharply after the August-2025 H1 trading update (the stock gapped from 240p to 200p on 9x average volume that week) and again after the January-2026 FY25 results. Over the last eight weeks the gap has stopped widening, with DOM up 18% from trough vs EWU up 4% — the first sign of relative-strength stabilisation in two years, though nowhere near enough to call it outperformance.

4. Momentum — RSI and MACD histogram (18 months)

RSI at 64 is the highest reading since end-February. The 18-month chart shows four oversold visits below 30 (Jan 2025, Apr 2025, Aug 2025, Nov 2025) — each followed by a short rally that faded. The current move is the first since February to push RSI through 60 with the MACD histogram expanding rather than fading. Near-term read: momentum is constructive for the first time in six months, but the pattern so far is lower RSI swing highs (71 in Jan, 72 in Feb, 64 now) — consistent with a base, not a breakout.

5. Volume and conviction

The 20-March 2026 print is the key volume event of the entire 10-year series — 16x the 50-day average with the stock closing roughly flat (-0.5%). Heavy volume on a flat close, after a multi-week sell-off into 173p, is a classic capitulation/washout signature. Combined with the 6-August 2025 capitulation (-18% on 10x volume) and the moderation in daily volume since, the pattern says supply has been absorbed rather than continuing to overwhelm demand. Recent price action IS being confirmed by volume, although the base is too young to call it institutional accumulation.

6. Volatility regime

Realized vol at 33.5% sits just under the 10-year p80 "stressed" threshold (34.7%) — the upper end of the normal range. The August-September 2025 spike to 64% was the highest reading since the March-2020 COVID shock. Vol has since collapsed then risen again alongside the March-2026 capitulation. The market is pricing more uncertainty now than its own history implies on average, but the August shock reading has been substantially worked off. This is a high-uncertainty name on a 3-month view, consistent with the H1 2026 supply-chain EBITDA print the Numbers tab flagged as the single most important data point for the thesis.

7. Technical scorecard and stance

Composite: 0 (two positive, two neutral, two negative). The weight of evidence describes a stock at an inflection — weeks away from either confirming the two-year downtrend is over, or re-asserting it.

Stance — neutral with a constructive near-term bias on the 3-to-6 month horizon. The fundamentals picture (per the Numbers tab) is a mid-cycle trough — EBITDA down to £143M, leverage at 1.99x, EV/EBITDA 8.3x versus a 10-year median of 15.5x — and the price action is now starting to confirm stabilisation rather than deterioration. The death cross of January 2025 has not resolved, but the 50-day (186p) is closing the gap with the 200-day (192p) and a flip requires only a few weeks of flat-to-rising price. The 20-March volume capitulation, the RSI trend off November's 24 reading, and the MACD histogram expansion together describe a base, not a breakdown. Where price and fundamentals agree: DOM's 81-point relative-strength collapse versus EWU matches Numbers' "priced as if the franchisor model has broken" framing — and both tabs agree the model is not broken. Where they disagree: Quant's base case is 310p (+62%); technicals suggest a far more measured path that has to first clear 200p, then 215p, before re-rating is on the table.